Monday, 27 February 2012

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ABOUT WAZZUB


Wazzub Family

After working in this industry a while, you get used to the frequency at which new opportunities arise.  On an almost daily basis, I’m contacted about a business that someone would like to recruit me in to.  Occasionally, an opportunity will arise that causes quite a stir, and I’ll hear about it from several different parties.  Most recently, the new opportunity creating all the fuss has been Wazzub.  After nearly a month of consistent emails and calls, I decided to take a closer look and see what all the fuss is about.  If you’ve also been contacted about Wazzub and are considering joining, hopefully this Wazzub Review will assist you in deciding if it’s a good fit for you.

What Is Wazzub Anyway?

Similar to Bing or Google, Wazzub is a search engine.  As of January 1st, 2012, they are in pre-launch and scheduled to go live on April 9th, 2012.  The intent is for Wazzub to be a profit sharing company, sharing 50% of their profits with their members.  It’s currently free to join, and according to Wazzub, it always will be.  Once their site goes live, members will potentially be able to earn $1 per month for every member who joined under them, up to 5 levels deep.  Wazzub.com offers a handy calculator to help you figure your potential earnings with their program.  At this time, all you need to do is spread the word and sign up as many members as you can by April 9, 2012.  In addition to remaining free, Wazzub also states that there will never be any autoships or fees - ever.


How Will Wazzub Pay Its Members If It Will Always Be Free?

Much like Google and AOL, Wazzub will eventually monetize their site.  News, games, ads and other special offers will appear on the home page.  This advertising is where the profits will come from that are to be shared with the members.  The more traffic and interest Wazzub can generate ahead of time, the easier it will be for them to attract advertisers.  Wazzub.com explains that their aim is to create the “perfect home page” for internet users.

What’s So Special About Wazzub?

Wazzub is very clear about the fact that they do not consider themselves an MLM company, but rather, “the perfect internet opportunity”.  There are no downloads, no jobs to be done, nothing to buy or sell, no autoships or fees and there never will be. Essentially, as a Wazzub member, the only thing you need to do is spread the word to as many people as possible.  The more members you have in your “uni-level x 5 community” by the 9th of April, 2012, the higher your monthly earnings will be after that, with no additional work to be done.

Wazzub Scam Maybe?

Free membership means there really isn’t much to lose.  The worst that could happen is it ends up failing.  If you paid nothing to join, then you won’t be out any money.  At this point, it seems like the only thing you stand to lose is time. We all know how valuable that is, so it’s up to you to decide if Wazzub is an opportunity that’s right for you.  There was a time, although it seems hard to remember, when Google was only an idea.  Everything has to start somewhere.  Myself, I’m always open to an opportunity.  Over 1 million people joining within the first weeks of pre-launch, and back to back emails and calls in reference to this opportunity caused me to see some potential.  I decided why not give it a go.  If you decide, as well, to take a chance with Wazzub, you can get signed up here and also pick up thousands in Exclusive Wazzub Bonuses.


Friday, 24 February 2012

how much is Yahoo worth?

YHOO’s financials
This is a first pass through the YHOO financials.  Although the company’s statements have the same strong appeal for a puzzle-solver as sudoku or the NY Times crossword puzzle, I don’t think I’m going to do any more.  Why?  This is a situation where a value investor’s experience and instincts are important, not those of a growth investor like me.
But I do know something about China and about Japan–which, along with the erratic behavior of YHOO’s management, seem to me to be the big wild cards here–so I think my comments have some value.
Here goes:
the parts
YHOO consists of four parts:
1.  Working capital on the balance sheet of $2.6 billion.
2.  A 35% equity interest in Yahoo Japan (4689:JP).  That stock closed at ¥24,500 per share overnight, giving YHOO’s holding of about 20 million shares a value of $6.4 billion.  Despite its large interest, YHOO is more or less a passive investor in 4689, which is controlled by the Japanese internet firm Softbank (42% interest).   [I went to Yahoo Finance first to get the stock price information, but the site didn't have it.  Google Finance did.]
YHOO recorded about $350 million on its income statement as its share of Yahoo Japan’s earnings last year, but actually only received cash of $61 million in dividends.
3.  A 43%  primary (meaning, as things stand now) equity interest in the Alibaba Group, or 40% fully diluted (meaning after any warrants, stock options, convertibles… are exercised).
YHOO acquired its holding in Alibaba, a private mainland Chinese company, in 2005 in return for $1 billion in cash plus YHOO’s China search business.  Alibaba, which also has Softbank as a minority shareholder, runs the Chinese equivalent of eBay and Paypal.
According to YHOO (p. 76 of the 2010 10-K), Alibaba had revenue of $1.3 billion, up 77% year on year, in 2010 and made a slight accounting loss.
YHOO’s balance sheet carrying value–based on its purchase price–is $2.3 billion.  But Alibaba is growing very fast.  Its revenues today are triple what they were two years ago–no mention of revenues in either the 2005 or 2006 YHOO 10-Ks.
Let’s just make up a number for asset value.  If Yahoo Japan is worth 3x carrying value, Alibaba should easily be worth 4x, probably more.  But 4x carrying value = $9.2 billion.
4.  The rest of YHOO.  This is a shrinking business that generated about $1 billion in cash last year.  If you ran this part of YHOO for maximum cash generation until the flow turned negative and then closed it down, it might be worth $5 billion.  Maybe you could sell it for $3 billion today.
the sum
$2.6 billion + $6.4 billion +$9.2 billion + $5 billion   =   $23.2 billion, or about $18.50 per share.  Even though Yahoo Finance didn’t have a quote for Yahoo Japan, it did list a price target for YHOO shares a year from now.  It’s $17.62.
the issues
I think all the numbers are pretty solid except for Alibaba, which is 40% of the total. That’s an issue.
potential plusses
1.  Top management of YHOO hasn’t covered itself in glory over at least the past half-decade.  Still, the Yahoo brand name is a powerful asset.  Maybe the core company would be worth a lot more if put in more competent hands.  Let’s dream.  Add $5 billion to asset value?
2.  Alibaba is in its early growth days.  I may be undervaluing it significantly.  Add another $5 billion to asset value?
So YHOO’s value might be $26.50 a share?
potential minuses
1.  Masayoshi Son of Softbank controls Yahoo Japan, not YHOO.  Mr.Son was a corporate outsider with a somewhat suspect pedigree when he struck his deal with YHOO.  He’s now firmly inside an establishment that protects its own fiercely against the possibility of foreign interference.  Basically, YHOO has no power in this relationship.
Cellphone-based social networking companies have displaced Yahoo Japan much in the same way that Google and Facebook have supplanted YHOO.  Arguably, even at 15x earnings Yahoo Japan’s stock price is inflated by local stock market investors who see it as a defensive holding during a time of economic turmoil.
Who would buy 4689 from YHOO?  Softbank gains nothing by doing so.  A 1% dividend yield isn’t particularly attractive.  Any private buyer would put himself into the same powerless situation YHOO is in now.  A secondary offering would have to come at a significant discount, I think.  Selling a third of the company this way might take years.
2.  Jack Ma controls Alibaba, including a portion of its Alibaba voting rights that YHOO has ceded to him.  After his unsuccessful attempt to buy back YHOO’s holding earlier this year, Mr. Ma has begun to take important profit contributors out of Alibaba, starting with Alipay, the group’s Paypal equivalent–whether other shareholders like it or not.
In this case as well, I don’t see that YHOO has any real power.  Beijing may well be happy to block any potential sale, especially to another foreigner.  Mr. Ma may also have a contractual right to do so (who knows?).  How big a discount to intrinsic value would you require to put yourself into the poor bargaining position YHOO is in?    …probably a very big one.
3.  taxes.  Suppose both the Alibaba and Yahoo Japan stakes could be sold.  Under normal circumstances at least 20% of the sale price would go to some government tax collector–maybe more.  YHOO says it can’t find a tax-efficient way to get sales done.  Taxes could shave $4 a share off a sum-of-the-parts value.
4.  details of the joint venture contracts.  YHOO says it’s taxes.  I think there are no buyers–although not many sellers have gone broke by underestimating the intelligence of private equity/hedge fund purchasers.  But there may also be “change of control” provisions in the agreements with Yahoo Japan and Alibaba that either prohibit sale to a third party or significantly disadvantage any new owner.  It’s possible that YHOO doesn’t want to own up to any foolish terms it may have agreed to.
my conclusion
YHOO is a $14.50 stock as I’m writing this at about 11am Friday.  An $18.50 target gives me a 28% gain.  It’s possible that the stock could go significantly higher, if either of my plusses pan out.
But I’m unwilling to bet that YHOO’s board will turn competent overnight.  I think that YHOO will need to make significant concessions to Mr. Ma in order to be able to realize any value that’s in Alibaba.  And Alibaba’s most of the growth story. I think potential minuses outweigh potential plusses.
So I’m going to pass on this one.  It will be interesting to see how the bombastic Mr. Loeb fares in his crusade for change–although greenmail rather than change may be his real goal.

How Much Is Google Worth?

Google is worth a lot of money, more money than most people can imagine. But assigning an actual dollar amount to what the company is worth is trickier than you might think.
It is difficult to assign a value to a company like Google. The word “google” has entered the global lexicon, standing in for “web search” the way that the brand Kleenex stands in for “tissue”, as in “Give me a Kleenex.” How many times a day do you remind yourself to “google” something later? The value of a readily-identified monopoly such as Google is notoriously difficult to establish.
Rupert Murdoch’s Newscorp famously shelled out $580 million to purchase Myspace in a move that was eventually only worth about $60 million. Other Internet start-ups that were overvalued and ended up costing their investors tons of money are a dime a dozen.
How Much Is Google Worth?Still, as of October 5, 2009 (the last solid financial figure we have), Google’s market capital was valued at $153.4 billion. To put that number into perspective, Facebook’s market capital is estimated at around $15 billion, about a tenth of the market value of Google. Since investments in Facebook are an extremely hot commodity (and probably over valued) that huge number for Google is impressive.
How Is the Value of Google Determined?
There are any number of ways to determine the value of any website, from the smallest WordPress blog to a market giant like Google. Simple methods include –
Multiplying the net annual profit by a factor of ten — This is far too simplistic a model for something as complex as Google. Valuation by ballooning a website’s profits just doesn’t work. There are too many factors that go into something like “net annual profit” for a simple economic model like this to make sense. Still, many investors use this as a “base line” for determining a website’s value.
Adding up inventory and assets — This means figuring out the cost of replicating the website and setting its value somewhere around that number. For a website like Google, “assets” is a complicated term. It could refer to the quality of content and images, the value of search engine presence, the size of its customer lists and databases, etc.
Traffic — Websites make money based on the amount of traffic they get. For a website like Google, investing based on traffic means setting a value for one of the most popular websites in the world, often ranked #1 or #2 in terms of traffic. For a diverse site like Google, the value of traffic and traffic diversity is difficult to put a finger on. Paid advertising, links, and publicity alone are worth a ton, but the amount of traffic that Google gets means a higher value.
Branding — The value of the Google brand is a big factor in figuring out the overall worth. As we said before, the term “google” is a big part of our everyday speech now. What is the financial value of a brand recognized by everyone that uses the Internet? Tough to say.
A final note on determining the value of Google — when Google went public through a stock auction, lots of small investors bought in based on their long term view of its value, not short term. After the IPO, the stock market value of Google was well above any “institutional” value determined by the above factors. In other words, Google is as valuable as the people who invest in it believe it is.
The current stock value for Google (at the time of writing) is $463.01 per share. That’s well below the high at the end of last year of around $700 per share. Ups and downs on financial markets, and the dropping value of the dollar, means that Google’s stock is less valuable than when it was first released.
How Much Cash Does Google Generate? How Does Google Make Money?
Free cash flow is a major determining factor in the valuation of Google. Free cash flow means operating cash minus expenses, and in the last four years Google has continued to increase free cash flow. In the four year period starting in 2003, Google started with about $218 million in cash, growing year by year until by 2007 its cash value was up above $1.7 billion. Investors in Google, based on these numbers, are operating under the assumption that Google can continue to increase free cash flow by about 50% a year through 2012, when Google is expected to be worth about double what it is worth today.
Microsoft has traditionally been one of the highest valued companies traded publicly. For Google to surpass Microsoft in terms of valuation (Microsoft is only valued at about $70 billion today) is a huge deal, mostly because Microsoft deals in physical commodities that can be seen and touched. Google makes its money on invisible things like industry stature, web traffic, and maybe a little ad revenue thrown in for good measure.
Investing experts tell us that the Google brand alone is worth about 70% of Google’s value, meaning their reputation still far exceeds their profitability. Google itself reports that it will bring around $60 billion into the United States this year almost exclusively through search engine value and advertising. AdWords and AdSense are cash cows for Google, and if their brand value is still almost three-quarters of their total valuation (and $60 billion is nothing to sniff at) then the potential growth in Google’s value is exciting.
Whether you think that $60 billion mark is nothing but spin (and many investors do) or that Google is still undervalued (AdSense is expected to earn its members about $2 for every $1 they spend, a decent investment) any money sunk into Google is likely to earn a return, at least in the short term.

How much is Facebook worth?


By | February 1, 2012, 8:49pm PST
Summary: Everyone has always wondered how much Facebook is worth, but now that Menlo Park has filed papers to go public, suddenly everyone seems to be asking all at once.
Now that Facebook has filed for its IPO and all the numbers are out (and pictures!), the big question is: how much is the social networking giant actually worth? I’ll tell you right off the bat: I don’t know, and nobody else does either.
The general public won’t know what the company’s valuation is until right before the offering is made, which typically occurs about three months after the company files for its IPO. At least one rumor claims May 2012 is the timeframe to look forward to, but of course we’ve also heard Q1 2012, Q2 2012, or even later, but maybe sooner after all.
It is worth taking a look at how the social networking’s valuation has progressed over the years. Facebook’s valuation has been argued to be at $100 billion back in May 2011, and the number has been repeated rather senselessly ever since. Unsurprisingly though, nobody has invested in Facebook at a $100 billion valuation. Let’s take a look at the billions of dollars that Facebook has been valued at, shall we?
Unknown valuation: In June 2004, PayPal co-founder Peter Thiel gave Facebook a $500,000 loan, later converted to a 10 percent stake and eventually reduced to 3 percent.
Unknown valuation: In October 2004, Maurice Werdegar of Western Technology Investment (WTI) provided Facebook with a $300,000 three-year credit line. He followed this up with a second $300,000 credit line and a $25,000 equity investment in February 2005.
$100 million valuation: In April 2005, Accel Partners invested $12.7 million in Facebook for a 15 percent stake.
$500 million valuation: In April 2006, Greylock Partners invested $27.5 million in Facebook for a 1.5 percent stake.
$15 billion valuation: In October 2007, Microsoft bought a 1.6 percent stake in Facebook for about $240 million.
$15 billion valuation: In November 2007, Chinese business magnate Li Ka-Shing invested $60 million in Facebook, followed by another $60 million for a total stake of 0.8 percent.
Unknown valuation: In January 2008, European Founders Fund invested $15 million in Facebook.
$10 billion valuation: In May 2009, Digital Sky Technologies invested $200 million in Facebook for a 2 percent stake.
$23 billion valuation: In June 2010, Elevation Partners bought $120 million in shares on the secondary market for a 1.5 percent stake.
$50 billion valuation: In December 2010, Facebook announced it had raised $1.5 billion. The transaction consisted of two parts. In December 2010, Digital Sky Technologies, The Goldman Sachs Group, and funds managed by Goldman Sachs, invested $500 million in Facebook Class A common stock for a 1 percent stake. In January 2011, Goldman Sachs completed an oversubscribed offering to its non-US clients in a fund that invested $1 billion in Facebook Class A common stock.
$52 billion valuation: In February 2011, Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers (KPCB) invested $38 million in Facebook for a stake of less than 1 percent.
$65 billion valuation: In March 2011, investment firm General Atlantic purchased roughly 2.5 million Facebook shares from former Facebook employees for a 0.1 percent stake.
Unknown valuation: In March 2011, investment firm T. Rowe Price invested $190.5 million through various funds for a stake of less than 1 percent.
$70 billion valuation: In June 2011, Facebook investment fund GSV Capital bought 225,000 Facebook shares.
$65.50 billion valuation: In August 2011, advertising company Interpublic Group sold approximately half of its holdings for net cash proceeds of $133 million in a privately negotiated transaction.
For a while now, employees and early stakeholders have been selling shares privately on SecondMarket and SharesPost. Most of these have been in the valuation range of $80 billion, although there have also been auction failures. The second market is different, but nevertheless, what follows is the most recent Facebook valuation.
$83.5 billion valuation: In January 2012 the latest SharesPost auction begins (it ends tomorrow) at a share price of $35.50. This number will of course change: private shares can still be traded on secondary markets after the filing, though Facebook will restrict transactions as the date of the public offering nears.
So to summarize, while Facebook’s current valuation is unknown, the company’s financial worth has certainly grown over the years, and everyone is looking to see if it will pass the rumored $100 billion mark. That’s just a nice round number though: the real valuation is unlikely to have the perfect 12 digits, but of course everyone wants to know how close it will be to it. In short, the only official number we have is $50 billion. Investments have been made valuing the company around the $70 billion mark while sales on secondary markets have priced it in the $80 billion range. The expected valuation is anywhere between $75 billion to $100 billion, and there’s lots of time for even that to change.

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MARK ZUCKERBERG

MARK ZUCKERBERG



NEW YORK – Pengasas laman sosial Facebook, Mark Zuckerberg yang berusia 26 tahun semakin kaya ekoran pelaburan baru yang dibuat oleh dua pelabur baru, lapor sebuah akhbar semalam.
Ekoran pelaburan baru itu, nilai kekayaan Zuckerberg kini hampir AS$14 bilion (RM42.92 bilion).
Firma Goldman Sachs membuat pelaburan sebanyak AS$450 juta (RM1.37 bilion) dan syarikat Digital Sky Technologies membuat pelaburan AS$50 juta (RM153.30 juta).
Pelaburan dalam bentuk wang tunai itu membolehkan Facebook mengupah pekerja baru selain mengekalkan pekerja sedia ada.
Ia juga menyebabkan nilai Facebook meningkat kepada AS$50 bilion (RM153 bilion).
Zuckerberg yang memiliki suku saham dalam laman itu dan bilionair termuda di dunia akan meningkatkan kekayaannya kerana sebelum ini majalah Forbes membuat anggaran kekayaannya berjumlah AS$6.9 bilion (RM21.15 bilion) semasa Facebook bernilai AS23 bilion (RM70.51 bilion). – Agensi